The crackling of machine guns on the banks of the Suez Canal seems now to have given way to the serene diplomacy of peace seeking. The prospect of an Arab-Israeli sertlement under the auspices of the big powers has become less remote with Kissinger's lightning visit to Cairo and the conchasion of a new cease fire between Israel and Egypt. But the path towards a negotiated settlement threatens to be far from smooth, and several thorny problems remain which could well plunge the Middle East into bloody turmoil yet again. The talks which were supposed to take place immediately following the original ceasefire could not get off the ground while the Israclis remained entrenched of the West Bank of the Suez Canal. For Sadat to have agroed to talks while the Layptian Third Army remained trapped and encinded would have been tantamount to political suicide.
PRECARIOUS There can herefore be little dount that if the Aunericans do not now manage to secure at least a partial israeli withdrawal (to the 22 October ceasefire lines) in the near future, Sadat will once more face irresistible pressure to return to the battlefield in order to maintain his pesition at home. The present no war - no peace situation is fundamentally procarious, and the Alah rulers, who went to war to achieve the stability of a bourgeois peace, will do everything in their power to prevent the Israels from consolidatine their positions. Sadat simply cannot afford to tolerate the development of a deadlock situation such as prevailed for six years after 1967. The oil embargo is intended precisely to shift US policy in a more pro-Arab direction. Sections of the Israeli military no doubt continue to play with the idea of turning Egypts's defcat into a rout, while Meir and Dayan have ism of the right-wing Likud coalition - which opposed ihe ceasefire, and has heen accusing the Goverment of gross mismanagement of the war and of taking orders from Washington US imperialism, however, understands that unless it can bring Isracl to its sonses a fifth round of fighting is almost inevitable. US AND USSR The United States and the Soviet Union find themselves tore between their commitment to "detente and their "vital interests" in the Middle East. Both powers understand that the situation in the area will remain explosive for us long as there is no settlement, The Americans, however, are bent on ousting the Soviet bureaucracy from the Middle East arena (Syria, Iraq. Egypt) as the price for giving the Arab regimes what they want. The Kremlin, for its part, realises that a definitive peace between Israel and the Arab states can only in the long run he harmful to Soviet influence in the Arab A renewed no war Do peace situation would therefore in a certain sense be ideal from Moscow's point of view, but that would sooner or later mean no Sadal, If is of course possible that Brezhner and Co. Intend to hold on by posing as the winners of the peace, but Sadit knows only too well that the key to a diplomatic settiement with Israel Bies in Washington.
Sodal, in fact, is faood with a serious dilemma: he can neither capitulate totally to insporalism nor scriously take it on ll coald not fight America as well" was his justification for agree ing In end hostilities. Certainly he will sanction a Soviet presence only for as long as he has to face up to Israel, hut he cannot evict the Russians and leave himself detenedless until he has achieved a stable peace, And anotber bourgrois war, which failing considerable Israeli concosions may wel he his only optom, TIGHTROPE Us imperatism must also walk a delicate lighttope. Israel is sull the most reliable bulwark of imperialist interests in the Middle East, bur Nixon is conscious of the need not to cumpro mise US oil interests in the Arab world through a policy of one-sided commitment to israel. The countless thousands of Communists, trade area remains one of crucial economic and strutegic importance to the US, which is not prepared to counterance any challenge to its negemony from radical bourgeois-nationalist regimes (e.p. a Nasser-type development in Saudi Arabia). These would of necessity be dependent on the Sovier Union hence the liquidation of Soviet in fluence is a strategic in perative of US Middle Eastern policy.
riling classcs. The massive split in NATO which was revealed by Nixon's recent nuclear alert has its roots in the Franco-British ambition lo regain a foothold in the Middle East. By adopting a tavourable altitude towards the claims of LEe Aran regimes, and distancing themselves from the pro-israeli policy of the US, the Kurnpeans hope to ensure the continued flow of vilal oil supplies.
The Arab bourgeoises, however, take Europe's posturings with a large pinch of'salt. Europe's military and pulitical irapact is far too smail to affect the Middle East situation significundy. Thes surlid quarrel among thieves simply pre Igures the inconstitcation of inter imperialist contradictions, as capitalist Europe strikes out on an infependent road and disentanples itself (ront Bie Brother" America.
RESISTANCE There are, nevertheless. Jorces in the Middle Fast which will resist the bourgeois peace now in the offinic The Iraq Ba athist regime is capromis with Lee Zionist stale, Rhetorie political operation designed to capture the sympathies of the Arab masses and weaken the rival Syrian Balath (which is now prepared to suhscribe to Security Council Resulution 242). it should be remembered that the Iragi regime. whose hands are stained with the blood of antonists, kurds, and Jews, cleared it troops out of the way in September 1970 to facilitate Hussein's assault on the Palestinian commandos Such deeds speak louder than a thousand Bagdad-Radio broadcasts aboul the liberation of Palestine.
Then there are, of courso, the Palestinians. The proposal for the stablishment of an Indepen dent' Palestinian state, to consist of the West movement. The leadership of Al Fatah, which hus ching systematically to the coat-tails of the "progressive Arab regimes, is under heavy pressure to accept the Palestinian state package But the rank-and-file fedayin cannot he connied on to go along with the gentlemanly agrocutents reached over their beads in the world's capitals The phoney peace will almost certainly involve Egyptian and Syrian guarantees to curb outhreaks of guerrillu warfare and police their ternitories more effectively than hitherto (they will of course be aided in this by the UN peacekeeping forues so dear to Tribunite hearts). Defenco of the Palestinian resistance against the "men of peace" (Kissinger and Kosygin) and their local satraps must therefore be a pronty for the revolutionary movement throughout the world. The socialist movement in the West can help to ensure that the peace pact between the oppressors and exploiters of the peoples of the Middle East is not worth the puper it is written on.
Seven weeks have now passed since the successful coup of the Chilean Generals seven weeks of horrible, shocking repression.
These have been seven chaotic weeks filled with massacres, summary executions, denunciations, IN THIS ARTICLE reprinted from the 29 October issue of our sister newspaper in France, Rouge, JEAN-PIERRE BEAUVAIS, recently returned from Chile, looks at
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he addition, the Americans are clearly indignant Hank and the Gaza Strip, is sure to lead to at the encooperative behaviour of the European dramatic developments within the resistance