The generalised recession into which the entire world capitalist economy passed in 1973-74, and which will continue throu ghout this year, is the most serious since the Second World War.
Surprisingly this crisis has been subjected to very little serious analysis by the revolutionary left, sections of which have for too long been content to repeat timeless phrases about the crisis of capitalism'. Indeed there is a massive crisis, but for revolutionary socialists to deve top a correct strategy to combat the crisis and open up the road to workers' power, a correct analysis is necessary.
This issue of Red Weekly aims to make a contribution to the development of such an analysis by printing an adap ted version of a lengthy article on the generalised recession of the international capitalist economy by Ernest Mandel, the leading Marxist economist and militant of the Fourth International. The complete article is published in the latest issue of inprecor, the fortnightly information bulletin of the United Secretariat of the Fourth International.
Icting the 'final' crisis of capitalism, which will only occur when the workers themselves seize state power, it is necess ary to underline the scope of the crisis. Certain imperialist powers, notably Italy and Britain, have already exhausted their significant internal economic reserves, and a prolonged international economic racession would throw these countries into something like the conditions of the 1930s.
WALL STREET
Only concerted action by the most important imperialist powers, primarily West Germany and the United States, can succeed in keeping the weaker imp erialist states from economic collapse, and prevent an international recession on the same scale as that following the 1929 Wall Street crash.
POLITICAL DISASTER Such action will almost certainly be taken, The strongest imperialist powers have not yet exhausted their room for economic manoeuvre, and a new 1929 in the present relation of class forces would be a political disaster for the cap italist class. Nevertheless the tasks which even these states can undertake have definite limits.
& Firstly, it is by no means certain that in 1977-78 —that is, in the next slump. following the current recessioncapitalist class can prevent a new 1929, * Secondly, a new crupting crisis of an immediate nature -such as a new oil crisis or a severe miscalculation of policy by an important ruling class - could bring on such a collapse even at present, although this is not as yet the most likely variant * Thirdly, even if the major capitalist powers succeed in stopping this recession developing into a 1930s type collapse, this can only be done at the cost of an acceleration of the already unprecedentedly high rate of inflation, of an increase in unemployment to its highest point since 1945, and by enormously depleting capitalism's reserves for manoeuvre in the new recession which will inevitably follow rapidly on the heels of any temp orary upturn which can be created.
INTO THE DUSTBIN However, leaving aside the time at which recession will turn to slump, one thing is clear: the bankrupt capitalist system will not spontaneously remove itself. Only the working class and oppressed masses can throw it into the dustbin of history where it so richly belongs As Lenin was fond of pointing out long ago, for a revolutionary situation to arise it is not enough for the ruling class to be unable to go on in the old way. The working masses must also refuse to go in the old way. We hope this article contributes towards realising the second half of that equation.
Foe a peseta ember. powers.
In 1975, according to the lutest report of the Organisation of Economic Development (OECDI Its 24 member countries will fail to achieve one per cent growth between them for the second year running- While the combined output of the 20 biggest industrial countries rose by an annual average of 5% per cont between 1962 and mid-1973, it has stood stock still since June 1973.
La the world has enjoyed its greatest now suffering its greatest inflation and could shortly be suffering its grestest slump." This is how The Economist, the magazine of British big business, looked forward to 1975 in its issue of 21 DecThe spokesmen of capitalism have every right to feel gloomy. What revolutionary marxists alone foresaw and predicted is happching: the international capitalist economy is now going through its first generalised recession since the Second World War, It is the first recession to strike simultaneously at all the great imperialist Gainst price increases of nearly 25 per cent by increasing their wages by a third on average.
The recession did not hit the economy in France Tully at the beginning of 1974. But for some weeks now industrial production has been stagnating and prospects for industry are mediocre. Industry is now functioning at only 80 per cent capacity, und there has been a sharp rise in unemployment to 650,000. Women in particular have m. lt Bs pay for its crisis. Across the world, but in the USA in par tourar, tho cole queues cut langer anu longer. Without strong opposition from the working-class, this is the main price that capitalism will force the workers to
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STATE POWER Without falling into the trap of pred